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Polaris Weekly — Week ending Friday, September 11, 2026
Polaris Weekly Subscription · Week ending Friday, September 11, 2026

Industrials Led. Software Lagged.

PWS · Published 2026-09-11T20:16:07.086552Z · Publication ID 62 · Revision 1 · Template f7e65fee7fd1f496

Industrials Led. Software Lagged.

What actually mattered this week?

Crypto took the week outright. Industrials gained +4.2%, and the average crypto complex +0.4% against -0.9% for the average equity complex, across 27 tracked complexes of which 10 advanced. Uranium was the week's worst price performer at -8.2%, narrowly below Software at -3.6%. But Software also collapsed from rotation rank 4 to 5, giving its weakness confirmation across both price and relative leadership.

2 deteriorated in every one of them (Defense and Mid Caps). Persistence across 4 consecutive daily reads separates sustained evidence from a one-session observation.

Underneath the returns the ranking re-ordered: climbed into the leadership tercile: Insurance (17→9); 13 held their place in it. A complex can rise in price and still lose rank if others rose faster.

Polaris revised its daily verdict on 4 of 4 sessions, tracking breadth and sector damage day by day — yet no single session named the Industrials advance as the story. That is what the weekly horizon adds.

Why This Matters: The weekly view helps separate persistent rotation from single-session noise.
Supporting Intelligence

Signal Summary

Week 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-11. 27 complexes measured, 10 up, 17 down. Median -1.1%. Spread 12.3 points.

Underlying Polaris Modules

  • Rotation Pulse (V1)
  • Canonical prices
  • PCA conviction record
  • PDS verdict arc

The Horse Race

Who is winning, and what is Polaris Dynamic holding?

Preseason standings through 2026-09-11. The official Horse Race begins 2026-10-01, when all five indexes start at 100.00.

1. KB Active Fund — week -2.77% · preseason +1.08% · vs S&P +0.76% · vs gold +0.80% 2. KB Forever Fund — week -1.49% · preseason +0.93% · vs S&P +0.61% · vs gold +0.65% 3. S&P 500 Benchmark — week -1.16% · preseason +0.32% · vs S&P +0.00% · vs gold +0.04% 4. Gold Benchmark — week -2.28% · preseason +0.28% · vs S&P -0.04% · vs gold +0.00% [STALE] 5. Polaris Dynamic Fund — week +0.16% · preseason +0.16% · vs S&P +0.93% · vs gold +1.30%

KB Active Fund leads at +1.08%. KB Forever Fund is 0.15 points back. Best week: Polaris Dynamic Fund +0.16%. Weakest: KB Active Fund -2.77%. 2 of the three funds are ahead of both benchmarks.

Polaris Dynamic held GDX 60%, PDBC 30%, XLE 10%. That allocation returned +0.16% over the holding period, +1.31% against the S&P 500 and +2.43% against gold. Friday decision: 2026-09-11.

Why This Matters: Three portfolios and two benchmarks, measured the same way on the same days.
Supporting Intelligence

Underlying Polaris Modules

  • Polaris Portfolio Manager

Polaris Stock Screens

Which individual stocks pass the Polaris screens?

Systematic screening results · not portfolio recommendations. MOMENTUM & VOLUME Stocks currently passing the Polaris momentum and volume criteria. DELL — 52 / 100 (NEW) ATH + 52W Growth · 21d +17.1% · Volume 1.2x normal VALUE Stocks currently passing the Polaris value criteria. TROW — 93 / 100 P/E 10.7x · FCF yield 8.9% · Quality 94 ACGL — 91 / 100 P/E 7.5x · FCF yield 13.1% · Quality 76 GL — 89 / 100 P/E 11.4x · FCF yield 8.9% · Quality 87 MO — 88 / 100 P/E 14.5x · FCF yield 7.8% · Quality 74 CINF — 88 / 100 P/E 8.0x · FCF yield 11.5% · Quality 94 FSLR — 88 / 100 P/E 12.9x · FCF yield 7.1% · Quality 92 FIS — 86 / 100 P/E 5.9x · FCF yield 13.5% · Quality 61 LULU — 86 / 100 P/E 8.1x · FCF yield 10.5% · Quality 75 ALL — 84 / 100 P/E 5.1x · FCF yield 23.6% · Quality 92 APA — 84 / 100 P/E 9.4x · FCF yield 13.7% · Quality 89

Supporting Intelligence

Underlying Polaris Modules

  • Polaris Stock Screens

The Big Moves

Which complexes defined the week?

The advance was concentrated in Industrials (+4.2%), Commodities Broad (+3.9%) and Tier 2: ETH (+3.4%); against it, Uranium (-8.2%), Software (-3.6%) and Tier 1: BTC (-3.2%). All measured close to close over the week, not single-session pops.

Why This Matters: Moves of this size can materially change relative leadership and what deserves attention.
Supporting Intelligence

Tables

Week leaders (2026-09-04 → 2026-09-11)
  • Industrials: +4.2% (rotation rank 19→16)
  • Commodities Broad: +3.9% (rotation rank 1→2)
  • Tier 2: ETH: +3.4% (rotation rank 2→2)
  • Tier 3: Cached alts (16-coin basket): +3.3% (rotation rank 1→1)
  • Theme: Stablecoin Infrastructure: +1.7% (rotation rank 3→2)
  • Energy: +1.4% (rotation rank 3→3)
Week laggards
  • Uranium: -8.2%
  • Software: -3.6% (rotation rank 4→5)
  • Tier 1: BTC: -3.2% (rotation rank 3→3)
  • Materials: -2.6%
  • Silver Miners: -2.5% (rotation rank 5→7)
  • Small Caps: -2.4%

Underlying Polaris Modules

  • Rotation Pulse category universe (V1)
  • prices_daily adj_close

Leadership / Opportunity Watch

What strengthened over the week?

By rotation rank, held the leadership tercile all week: Software, Energy, Commodities Broad, Gold Miners, Silver Miners and Emerging Markets; climbed into it: Insurance (17→9).

New this week: Emerging Markets (from 2026-09-09, 3/4 sessions) and Insurance (from 2026-09-10, 2/4 sessions). Fewer than a full week of evidence — candidates, not conclusions.

Why This Matters: A setup that survives the full week has been carried through five consecutive daily reads. One that appeared on Friday has not.
Supporting Intelligence

Tables

Sustained all week
Emerged during the week
  • Emerging Markets — first seen 2026-09-09 — 3 session(s) [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
  • Insurance — first seen 2026-09-10 — 2 session(s) [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
ROTATION IMPROVING (rank gained over the week)
  • Insurance: rank 17→9 (+8) — IMPROVING_INTO_LEADERSHIP
  • Industrials: rank 19→16 (+3) — IMPROVING
  • Emerging Markets: rank 8→6 (+2) — LEADING_AND_HELD
  • Gold Miners: rank 2→1 (+1) — LEADING_AND_HELD
  • Theme: Payment Rails: rank 4→3 (+1) — LEADING_AND_HELD
  • Theme: Stablecoin Infrastructure: rank 3→2 (+1) — LEADING_AND_HELD

Underlying Polaris Modules

  • PCA conviction persistence
  • Rotation Pulse

What Broke / What Weakened

What deteriorated during the week?

Measured damage: Uranium -8.2%, Software -3.6% and Tier 1: BTC -3.2%.

Slipped but still leading: Silver Miners (5→7), Theme: ISO / Settlement Networks (2→4), Software (4→5) and Commodities Broad (1→2) — still inside the leadership tercile. A shuffle among leaders is a different event from leaving it.

Already weak and still weak: Defense (20→20) — bottom tercile throughout. A marginal rank gain here is not a recovery, only a less weak position among the weak.

Convictions still calling deterioration at the close: Defense (4/4) and Mid Caps (4/4).

Dropped during the week: Pipelines (last held 2026-09-10), Semiconductors (last held 2026-09-09), Commodities Broad (last held 2026-09-08) and Materials (last held 2026-09-08) — no longer seen, not reversed.

Why This Matters: Deterioration that persists across a week is a change in trend. Deterioration that appears once is a bad session.
Supporting Intelligence

Tables

Week laggards
  • Uranium: -8.2%
  • Software: -3.6%
  • Tier 1: BTC: -3.2%
  • Materials: -2.6%
  • Silver Miners: -2.5%
ROTATING AWAY (left the leadership tercile)
  • (none)
LEADERSHIP SHIFTS (moved, still a leader)
  • Silver Miners: rank 5→7 (-2) — remains a leader
  • Theme: ISO / Settlement Networks: rank 2→4 (-2) — remains a leader
  • Software: rank 4→5 (-1) — remains a leader
  • Commodities Broad: rank 1→2 (-1) — remains a leader
PERSISTENT WEAKNESS (bottom tercile throughout)
  • Defense: rank 20→20 (+0) — still weak
OTHER RANK DECLINES
  • (none)
Faded convictions
  • Pipelines — held 2026-09-08..2026-09-10 (2 sessions) [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
  • Semiconductors — held 2026-09-08..2026-09-09 (2 sessions) [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
  • Commodities Broad — held 2026-09-08..2026-09-08 (1 sessions) [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
  • Materials — held 2026-09-08..2026-09-08 (1 sessions) [capital_flow]

Underlying Polaris Modules

  • PCA conviction persistence
  • prices_daily

Risk Watch

What could derail the developing setup next week?

3 risk conditions were active in every one of the 4 sessions this week: Leadership concentration, Thesis invalidation and Market Stress — LOW. A risk that stays lit for a full week of sessions is not an alert; it is the current environment.

Why This Matters: The setup that led this week is the position most exposed if these conditions resolve against it.
Supporting Intelligence

Tables

Risk conditions across the week
  • Leadership concentration — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions
  • Thesis invalidation — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions
  • Market Stress — LOW — SUSTAINED — 3/4 sessions
  • Market Stress — ELEVATED — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 sessions

Underlying Polaris Modules

  • Risk Watch (daily)
  • PCA persistence

AI Watch

What did the AI complex do this week?

The AI complex over the week: Semiconductors +1.0%, Software -3.6%, Mag 7 +0.8% — an average of -0.6%.

That is 0.3 points of relative outperformance against an equity complex averaging -0.9%. Continued outperformance next week would strengthen the case that leadership is consolidating in the complex.

AI-related convictions: Semiconductors (faded), Semiconductors (faded), Mag 7 (emerged), Software (single_session), Mag 7 (emerged).

Why This Matters: The AI complex has carried index-level returns for two years, so a week of relative movement either way is worth tracking — one week does not establish which way it resolves.
Supporting Intelligence

Tables

AI complex, week over week
  • Semiconductors: +1.0% (9 constituents)
  • Software: -3.6% (8 constituents)
  • Mag 7: +0.8% (7 constituents)

Underlying Polaris Modules

  • Rotation Pulse categories
  • prices_daily

Wen Moon — Weekly Read

What did the four complexes do across the week?

Crypto has clearly separated from the other major complexes. Within the metals, the miners are moving considerably faster than the metals themselves. Broad equities and Gold and Silver are declining. Inside AI / Hyperscalers, leadership is splitting rather than moving together. Current ordering: Crypto → AI / Hyperscalers → Broad equities → Gold → Silver.

Rotation Pulse kept Software, Energy, Commodities Broad and Gold Miners inside the leadership tercile over the same interval — the shift at the top did not displace them.

Methodology note: Wen Moon reports measured direction only. It does not classify these complexes as ranging, building or breaking out — that classifier is not validated.

Why This Matters: Wen Moon tracks four complexes on one clock, so the change between the week's first and last read shows the direction of travel.
Supporting Intelligence

Tables

Wen Moon, first and last session of the week
  • 2026-09-08: strongest None (None%), weakest None (None%)
  • 2026-09-09: strongest None (None%), weakest None (None%)
  • 2026-09-10: strongest None (None%), weakest None (None%)
  • 2026-09-11: strongest None (None%), weakest None (None%)

Underlying Polaris Modules

  • Wen Moon (approved production version)

Next Week

What evidence matters next?

Confirm or discard: Emerging Markets, Insurance and Uranium — each with fewer than a full week of evidence behind it.

Asserted once and not repeated: Industrials (2026-09-10), Market Stress — ELEVATED (2026-09-10) and Software (2026-09-09) — a single session that does not recur was a day, not a trend.

The specific test: whether equities retains relative leadership after this week's repricing. 7 equities complexes currently sit in the leadership tercile, Industrials at rank 16. Continued strength, consolidation while holding leadership, or broadening participation would reinforce the move; a sharp reversal and loss of relative rank would weaken it.

Watch for re-emergence: Pipelines, Semiconductors, Commodities Broad and Materials.

Why This Matters: Naming the test in advance lets next week's edition grade this one.
Supporting Intelligence

Tables

Open questions carried into next week
  • Emerging Markets — EMERGED — 3/4 [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
  • Insurance — EMERGED — 2/4 [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
  • Uranium — EMERGED — 2/4 [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
  • Industrials — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 [capital_flow]
  • Market Stress — ELEVATED — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 [risk_watch]
  • Software — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 [capital_flow]

Underlying Polaris Modules

  • PCA persistence

Weekly Verdict

What is Polaris's claim about this week?

Industrials Led. Software Lagged.

Industrials +4.2% against Uranium -8.2% over 2026-09-04→2026-09-11; crypto average +0.4% vs equity average -0.9%; 6 subjects held all 4 sessions.

Why This Matters: This is the claim next week's edition will be measured against.
Supporting Intelligence

Signal Summary

Industrials +4.2% against Uranium -8.2% over 2026-09-04→2026-09-11; crypto average +0.4% vs equity average -0.9%; 6 subjects held all 4 sessions

Trend Statistics

  • Industrials +4.2%
  • Commodities Broad +3.9%
  • Tier 2: ETH +3.4%
  • Tier 3: Cached alts (16-coin basket) +3.3%
  • 10 of 27 complexes advanced

Tables

Confidence derivation — HIGH (5/5 conditions)
  • every_session_represented: PASS
  • rotation_covers_full_week: PASS
  • no_outstanding_data_gaps: PASS
  • universe_large_enough_to_rank: PASS
  • price_and_rotation_corroborate: PASS
  • corroborating leader: Industrials
  • corroborating laggard: Software

Underlying Polaris Modules

  • Weekly evidence layer
END OF PART ONE

That's the quick read.

If you're a casual investor, you can stop here. You know where opportunity is developing, where the risks are, and whether the major markets look ready to move.

Everything below is for the market nerds.

If “just tell me what to buy” isn't enough — if you want to know why, what the data actually says, what would confirm the thesis, and what would prove it wrong — keep reading.

The first three sections are the signal. The rest is the evidence.

Polaris Deep Dive
For investors who want to know why.

12 · You Can Stop Here

If you wanted to know what happened this week, what is leading, and what matters next week — you have it. That was the publication.

What follows is the working: the full measured table for every tracked complex, the complete conviction ledger showing which calls Polaris held and which it dropped on which day, and the provenance record identifying exactly which intelligence runs and which daily editions this week was built from. It is here so the conclusions above can be checked rather than trusted.

13 · The Working

Where did these conclusions come from?

Every tracked complex, measured close-to-close from 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-11, followed by every conviction Polaris carried during the week and the provenance record for the five daily editions this week was built from.

Why This Matters: A weekly conclusion that cannot be traced to the daily record it came from is an opinion.
Supporting Intelligence

Tables

All tracked complexes, week over week
  • Industrials: +4.2% [equity, 1 used]
  • Commodities Broad: +3.9% [equity, 1 used]
  • Tier 2: ETH: +3.4% [crypto_tier, 1 used]
  • Tier 3: Cached alts (16-coin basket): +3.3% [crypto_tier, 16 used]
  • Theme: Stablecoin Infrastructure: +1.7% [crypto_theme, 3 used]
  • Energy: +1.4% [equity, 6 used]
  • Theme: Smart Contract Leaders: +1.3% [crypto_theme, 4 used]
  • Insurance: +1.1% [equity, 1 used]
  • Semiconductors: +1.0% [equity, 9 used]
  • Mag 7: +0.8% [equity, 7 used]
  • Pipelines: -0.7% [equity, 3 used]
  • Large Caps: -0.8% [equity, 1 used]
  • Gold Miners: -0.9% [equity, 3 used]
  • Emerging Markets: -1.1% [equity, 3 used]
  • REITs: -1.2% [equity, 1 used]
  • Theme: Payment Rails: -1.3% [crypto_theme, 4 used]
  • Defense: -1.6% [equity, 2 used]
  • Utilities: -1.6% [equity, 2 used]
  • Precious Metals: -1.8% [equity, 5 used]
  • Mid Caps: -1.9% [equity, 1 used]
  • Theme: ISO / Settlement Networks: -2.3% [crypto_theme, 3 used]
  • Small Caps: -2.4% [equity, 1 used]
  • Silver Miners: -2.5% [equity, 2 used]
  • Materials: -2.6% [equity, 3 used]
  • Tier 1: BTC: -3.2% [crypto_tier, 1 used]
  • Software: -3.6% [equity, 8 used]
  • Uranium: -8.2% [equity, 1 used]
Not measurable
  • (none)
Complete conviction ledger
  • Defense — deteriorating — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-11) [capital_flow]
  • Mid Caps — deteriorating — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-11) [capital_flow]
  • RISK_ON_EXPANSION — changed — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-11) [executive_verdict]
  • Leadership concentration — activating — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-11) [risk_watch]
  • Thesis invalidation — activating — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-11) [risk_watch]
  • Emerging Markets — improving — EMERGED — 3/4 sessions (2026-09-09..2026-09-11) [capital_flow]
  • Emerging Markets — emerging — EMERGED — 3/4 sessions (2026-09-09..2026-09-11) [opportunity_watch]
  • Market Stress — LOW — activating — SUSTAINED — 3/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-11) [risk_watch]
  • Insurance — improving — EMERGED — 2/4 sessions (2026-09-10..2026-09-11) [capital_flow]
  • Pipelines — improving — FADED — 2/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-10) [capital_flow]
  • Semiconductors — improving — FADED — 2/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-09) [capital_flow]
  • Insurance — emerging — EMERGED — 2/4 sessions (2026-09-10..2026-09-11) [opportunity_watch]
  • Pipelines — emerging — FADED — 2/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-10) [opportunity_watch]
  • Semiconductors — emerging — FADED — 2/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-09) [opportunity_watch]
  • Commodities Broad — improving — FADED — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-08) [capital_flow]
  • Industrials — deteriorating — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-10..2026-09-10) [capital_flow]
  • Mag 7 — improving — EMERGED — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-11..2026-09-11) [capital_flow]
  • Materials — deteriorating — FADED — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-08) [capital_flow]
  • Software — deteriorating — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-09..2026-09-09) [capital_flow]
  • Uranium — improving — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-09..2026-09-09) [capital_flow]
  • Uranium — deteriorating — EMERGED — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-11..2026-09-11) [capital_flow]
  • Commodities Broad — emerging — FADED — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-08) [opportunity_watch]
  • Mag 7 — emerging — EMERGED — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-11..2026-09-11) [opportunity_watch]
  • Uranium — emerging — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-09..2026-09-09) [opportunity_watch]
  • Market Stress — ELEVATED — activating — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-10..2026-09-10) [risk_watch]
Provenance
  • week_ending: 2026-09-11
  • contributing market dates: 2026-09-08, 2026-09-09, 2026-09-10, 2026-09-11
  • contributing PDS publication_ids: 58, 59, 60, 61
  • contributing intelligence run_ids: 54, 57, 60, 63
  • readiness: READY
  • evidence version: weekly_evidence.v1.2026-08-24
  • composer version: weekly_composers.v4.2026-08-24
  • return basis: equal-weight basket of adj_close, 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-11

Underlying Polaris Modules

  • Rotation Pulse (V1)
  • PCA
  • prices_daily
  • PDS archive
Polaris is published by Kevin Butler at kb13.com.
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