Industrials Led. Software Lagged.
Industrials Led. Software Lagged.
Crypto took the week outright. Industrials gained +4.2%, and the average crypto complex +0.4% against -0.9% for the average equity complex, across 27 tracked complexes of which 10 advanced. Uranium was the week's worst price performer at -8.2%, narrowly below Software at -3.6%. But Software also collapsed from rotation rank 4 to 5, giving its weakness confirmation across both price and relative leadership.
2 deteriorated in every one of them (Defense and Mid Caps). Persistence across 4 consecutive daily reads separates sustained evidence from a one-session observation.
Underneath the returns the ranking re-ordered: climbed into the leadership tercile: Insurance (17→9); 13 held their place in it. A complex can rise in price and still lose rank if others rose faster.
Polaris revised its daily verdict on 4 of 4 sessions, tracking breadth and sector damage day by day — yet no single session named the Industrials advance as the story. That is what the weekly horizon adds.
Supporting Intelligence
Signal Summary
Week 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-11. 27 complexes measured, 10 up, 17 down. Median -1.1%. Spread 12.3 points.
Underlying Polaris Modules
- Rotation Pulse (V1)
- Canonical prices
- PCA conviction record
- PDS verdict arc
The Horse Race
Preseason standings through 2026-09-11. The official Horse Race begins 2026-10-01, when all five indexes start at 100.00.
1. KB Active Fund — week -2.77% · preseason +1.08% · vs S&P +0.76% · vs gold +0.80% 2. KB Forever Fund — week -1.49% · preseason +0.93% · vs S&P +0.61% · vs gold +0.65% 3. S&P 500 Benchmark — week -1.16% · preseason +0.32% · vs S&P +0.00% · vs gold +0.04% 4. Gold Benchmark — week -2.28% · preseason +0.28% · vs S&P -0.04% · vs gold +0.00% [STALE] 5. Polaris Dynamic Fund — week +0.16% · preseason +0.16% · vs S&P +0.93% · vs gold +1.30%
KB Active Fund leads at +1.08%. KB Forever Fund is 0.15 points back. Best week: Polaris Dynamic Fund +0.16%. Weakest: KB Active Fund -2.77%. 2 of the three funds are ahead of both benchmarks.
Polaris Dynamic held GDX 60%, PDBC 30%, XLE 10%. That allocation returned +0.16% over the holding period, +1.31% against the S&P 500 and +2.43% against gold. Friday decision: 2026-09-11.
Supporting Intelligence
Underlying Polaris Modules
- Polaris Portfolio Manager
Polaris Stock Screens
Systematic screening results · not portfolio recommendations. MOMENTUM & VOLUME Stocks currently passing the Polaris momentum and volume criteria. DELL — 52 / 100 (NEW) ATH + 52W Growth · 21d +17.1% · Volume 1.2x normal VALUE Stocks currently passing the Polaris value criteria. TROW — 93 / 100 P/E 10.7x · FCF yield 8.9% · Quality 94 ACGL — 91 / 100 P/E 7.5x · FCF yield 13.1% · Quality 76 GL — 89 / 100 P/E 11.4x · FCF yield 8.9% · Quality 87 MO — 88 / 100 P/E 14.5x · FCF yield 7.8% · Quality 74 CINF — 88 / 100 P/E 8.0x · FCF yield 11.5% · Quality 94 FSLR — 88 / 100 P/E 12.9x · FCF yield 7.1% · Quality 92 FIS — 86 / 100 P/E 5.9x · FCF yield 13.5% · Quality 61 LULU — 86 / 100 P/E 8.1x · FCF yield 10.5% · Quality 75 ALL — 84 / 100 P/E 5.1x · FCF yield 23.6% · Quality 92 APA — 84 / 100 P/E 9.4x · FCF yield 13.7% · Quality 89
Supporting Intelligence
Underlying Polaris Modules
- Polaris Stock Screens
The Big Moves
The advance was concentrated in Industrials (+4.2%), Commodities Broad (+3.9%) and Tier 2: ETH (+3.4%); against it, Uranium (-8.2%), Software (-3.6%) and Tier 1: BTC (-3.2%). All measured close to close over the week, not single-session pops.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
- Industrials: +4.2% (rotation rank 19→16)
- Commodities Broad: +3.9% (rotation rank 1→2)
- Tier 2: ETH: +3.4% (rotation rank 2→2)
- Tier 3: Cached alts (16-coin basket): +3.3% (rotation rank 1→1)
- Theme: Stablecoin Infrastructure: +1.7% (rotation rank 3→2)
- Energy: +1.4% (rotation rank 3→3)
- Uranium: -8.2%
- Software: -3.6% (rotation rank 4→5)
- Tier 1: BTC: -3.2% (rotation rank 3→3)
- Materials: -2.6%
- Silver Miners: -2.5% (rotation rank 5→7)
- Small Caps: -2.4%
Underlying Polaris Modules
- Rotation Pulse category universe (V1)
- prices_daily adj_close
Leadership / Opportunity Watch
By rotation rank, held the leadership tercile all week: Software, Energy, Commodities Broad, Gold Miners, Silver Miners and Emerging Markets; climbed into it: Insurance (17→9).
New this week: Emerging Markets (from 2026-09-09, 3/4 sessions) and Insurance (from 2026-09-10, 2/4 sessions). Fewer than a full week of evidence — candidates, not conclusions.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
- Emerging Markets — first seen 2026-09-09 — 3 session(s) [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
- Insurance — first seen 2026-09-10 — 2 session(s) [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
- Insurance: rank 17→9 (+8) — IMPROVING_INTO_LEADERSHIP
- Industrials: rank 19→16 (+3) — IMPROVING
- Emerging Markets: rank 8→6 (+2) — LEADING_AND_HELD
- Gold Miners: rank 2→1 (+1) — LEADING_AND_HELD
- Theme: Payment Rails: rank 4→3 (+1) — LEADING_AND_HELD
- Theme: Stablecoin Infrastructure: rank 3→2 (+1) — LEADING_AND_HELD
Underlying Polaris Modules
- PCA conviction persistence
- Rotation Pulse
What Broke / What Weakened
Measured damage: Uranium -8.2%, Software -3.6% and Tier 1: BTC -3.2%.
Slipped but still leading: Silver Miners (5→7), Theme: ISO / Settlement Networks (2→4), Software (4→5) and Commodities Broad (1→2) — still inside the leadership tercile. A shuffle among leaders is a different event from leaving it.
Already weak and still weak: Defense (20→20) — bottom tercile throughout. A marginal rank gain here is not a recovery, only a less weak position among the weak.
Convictions still calling deterioration at the close: Defense (4/4) and Mid Caps (4/4).
Dropped during the week: Pipelines (last held 2026-09-10), Semiconductors (last held 2026-09-09), Commodities Broad (last held 2026-09-08) and Materials (last held 2026-09-08) — no longer seen, not reversed.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
- Uranium: -8.2%
- Software: -3.6%
- Tier 1: BTC: -3.2%
- Materials: -2.6%
- Silver Miners: -2.5%
- (none)
- Silver Miners: rank 5→7 (-2) — remains a leader
- Theme: ISO / Settlement Networks: rank 2→4 (-2) — remains a leader
- Software: rank 4→5 (-1) — remains a leader
- Commodities Broad: rank 1→2 (-1) — remains a leader
- Defense: rank 20→20 (+0) — still weak
- (none)
- Pipelines — held 2026-09-08..2026-09-10 (2 sessions) [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
- Semiconductors — held 2026-09-08..2026-09-09 (2 sessions) [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
- Commodities Broad — held 2026-09-08..2026-09-08 (1 sessions) [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
- Materials — held 2026-09-08..2026-09-08 (1 sessions) [capital_flow]
Underlying Polaris Modules
- PCA conviction persistence
- prices_daily
Risk Watch
3 risk conditions were active in every one of the 4 sessions this week: Leadership concentration, Thesis invalidation and Market Stress — LOW. A risk that stays lit for a full week of sessions is not an alert; it is the current environment.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
- Leadership concentration — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions
- Thesis invalidation — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions
- Market Stress — LOW — SUSTAINED — 3/4 sessions
- Market Stress — ELEVATED — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 sessions
Underlying Polaris Modules
- Risk Watch (daily)
- PCA persistence
AI Watch
The AI complex over the week: Semiconductors +1.0%, Software -3.6%, Mag 7 +0.8% — an average of -0.6%.
That is 0.3 points of relative outperformance against an equity complex averaging -0.9%. Continued outperformance next week would strengthen the case that leadership is consolidating in the complex.
AI-related convictions: Semiconductors (faded), Semiconductors (faded), Mag 7 (emerged), Software (single_session), Mag 7 (emerged).
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
- Semiconductors: +1.0% (9 constituents)
- Software: -3.6% (8 constituents)
- Mag 7: +0.8% (7 constituents)
Underlying Polaris Modules
- Rotation Pulse categories
- prices_daily
Wen Moon — Weekly Read
Crypto has clearly separated from the other major complexes. Within the metals, the miners are moving considerably faster than the metals themselves. Broad equities and Gold and Silver are declining. Inside AI / Hyperscalers, leadership is splitting rather than moving together. Current ordering: Crypto → AI / Hyperscalers → Broad equities → Gold → Silver.
Rotation Pulse kept Software, Energy, Commodities Broad and Gold Miners inside the leadership tercile over the same interval — the shift at the top did not displace them.
Methodology note: Wen Moon reports measured direction only. It does not classify these complexes as ranging, building or breaking out — that classifier is not validated.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
- 2026-09-08: strongest None (None%), weakest None (None%)
- 2026-09-09: strongest None (None%), weakest None (None%)
- 2026-09-10: strongest None (None%), weakest None (None%)
- 2026-09-11: strongest None (None%), weakest None (None%)
Underlying Polaris Modules
- Wen Moon (approved production version)
Next Week
Confirm or discard: Emerging Markets, Insurance and Uranium — each with fewer than a full week of evidence behind it.
Asserted once and not repeated: Industrials (2026-09-10), Market Stress — ELEVATED (2026-09-10) and Software (2026-09-09) — a single session that does not recur was a day, not a trend.
The specific test: whether equities retains relative leadership after this week's repricing. 7 equities complexes currently sit in the leadership tercile, Industrials at rank 16. Continued strength, consolidation while holding leadership, or broadening participation would reinforce the move; a sharp reversal and loss of relative rank would weaken it.
Watch for re-emergence: Pipelines, Semiconductors, Commodities Broad and Materials.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
- Emerging Markets — EMERGED — 3/4 [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
- Insurance — EMERGED — 2/4 [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
- Uranium — EMERGED — 2/4 [capital_flow, opportunity_watch]
- Industrials — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 [capital_flow]
- Market Stress — ELEVATED — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 [risk_watch]
- Software — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 [capital_flow]
Underlying Polaris Modules
- PCA persistence
Weekly Verdict
Industrials Led. Software Lagged.
Industrials +4.2% against Uranium -8.2% over 2026-09-04→2026-09-11; crypto average +0.4% vs equity average -0.9%; 6 subjects held all 4 sessions.
Supporting Intelligence
Signal Summary
Industrials +4.2% against Uranium -8.2% over 2026-09-04→2026-09-11; crypto average +0.4% vs equity average -0.9%; 6 subjects held all 4 sessions
Trend Statistics
- Industrials +4.2%
- Commodities Broad +3.9%
- Tier 2: ETH +3.4%
- Tier 3: Cached alts (16-coin basket) +3.3%
- 10 of 27 complexes advanced
Tables
- every_session_represented: PASS
- rotation_covers_full_week: PASS
- no_outstanding_data_gaps: PASS
- universe_large_enough_to_rank: PASS
- price_and_rotation_corroborate: PASS
- corroborating leader: Industrials
- corroborating laggard: Software
Underlying Polaris Modules
- Weekly evidence layer
That's the quick read.
If you're a casual investor, you can stop here. You know where opportunity is developing, where the risks are, and whether the major markets look ready to move.
Everything below is for the market nerds.
If “just tell me what to buy” isn't enough — if you want to know why, what the data actually says, what would confirm the thesis, and what would prove it wrong — keep reading.
The first three sections are the signal. The rest is the evidence.
12 · You Can Stop Here
If you wanted to know what happened this week, what is leading, and what matters next week — you have it. That was the publication.
What follows is the working: the full measured table for every tracked complex, the complete conviction ledger showing which calls Polaris held and which it dropped on which day, and the provenance record identifying exactly which intelligence runs and which daily editions this week was built from. It is here so the conclusions above can be checked rather than trusted.
13 · The Working
Every tracked complex, measured close-to-close from 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-11, followed by every conviction Polaris carried during the week and the provenance record for the five daily editions this week was built from.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
- Industrials: +4.2% [equity, 1 used]
- Commodities Broad: +3.9% [equity, 1 used]
- Tier 2: ETH: +3.4% [crypto_tier, 1 used]
- Tier 3: Cached alts (16-coin basket): +3.3% [crypto_tier, 16 used]
- Theme: Stablecoin Infrastructure: +1.7% [crypto_theme, 3 used]
- Energy: +1.4% [equity, 6 used]
- Theme: Smart Contract Leaders: +1.3% [crypto_theme, 4 used]
- Insurance: +1.1% [equity, 1 used]
- Semiconductors: +1.0% [equity, 9 used]
- Mag 7: +0.8% [equity, 7 used]
- Pipelines: -0.7% [equity, 3 used]
- Large Caps: -0.8% [equity, 1 used]
- Gold Miners: -0.9% [equity, 3 used]
- Emerging Markets: -1.1% [equity, 3 used]
- REITs: -1.2% [equity, 1 used]
- Theme: Payment Rails: -1.3% [crypto_theme, 4 used]
- Defense: -1.6% [equity, 2 used]
- Utilities: -1.6% [equity, 2 used]
- Precious Metals: -1.8% [equity, 5 used]
- Mid Caps: -1.9% [equity, 1 used]
- Theme: ISO / Settlement Networks: -2.3% [crypto_theme, 3 used]
- Small Caps: -2.4% [equity, 1 used]
- Silver Miners: -2.5% [equity, 2 used]
- Materials: -2.6% [equity, 3 used]
- Tier 1: BTC: -3.2% [crypto_tier, 1 used]
- Software: -3.6% [equity, 8 used]
- Uranium: -8.2% [equity, 1 used]
- (none)
- Defense — deteriorating — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-11) [capital_flow]
- Mid Caps — deteriorating — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-11) [capital_flow]
- RISK_ON_EXPANSION — changed — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-11) [executive_verdict]
- Leadership concentration — activating — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-11) [risk_watch]
- Thesis invalidation — activating — SUSTAINED — 4/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-11) [risk_watch]
- Emerging Markets — improving — EMERGED — 3/4 sessions (2026-09-09..2026-09-11) [capital_flow]
- Emerging Markets — emerging — EMERGED — 3/4 sessions (2026-09-09..2026-09-11) [opportunity_watch]
- Market Stress — LOW — activating — SUSTAINED — 3/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-11) [risk_watch]
- Insurance — improving — EMERGED — 2/4 sessions (2026-09-10..2026-09-11) [capital_flow]
- Pipelines — improving — FADED — 2/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-10) [capital_flow]
- Semiconductors — improving — FADED — 2/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-09) [capital_flow]
- Insurance — emerging — EMERGED — 2/4 sessions (2026-09-10..2026-09-11) [opportunity_watch]
- Pipelines — emerging — FADED — 2/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-10) [opportunity_watch]
- Semiconductors — emerging — FADED — 2/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-09) [opportunity_watch]
- Commodities Broad — improving — FADED — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-08) [capital_flow]
- Industrials — deteriorating — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-10..2026-09-10) [capital_flow]
- Mag 7 — improving — EMERGED — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-11..2026-09-11) [capital_flow]
- Materials — deteriorating — FADED — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-08) [capital_flow]
- Software — deteriorating — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-09..2026-09-09) [capital_flow]
- Uranium — improving — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-09..2026-09-09) [capital_flow]
- Uranium — deteriorating — EMERGED — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-11..2026-09-11) [capital_flow]
- Commodities Broad — emerging — FADED — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-08..2026-09-08) [opportunity_watch]
- Mag 7 — emerging — EMERGED — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-11..2026-09-11) [opportunity_watch]
- Uranium — emerging — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-09..2026-09-09) [opportunity_watch]
- Market Stress — ELEVATED — activating — SINGLE_SESSION — 1/4 sessions (2026-09-10..2026-09-10) [risk_watch]
- week_ending: 2026-09-11
- contributing market dates: 2026-09-08, 2026-09-09, 2026-09-10, 2026-09-11
- contributing PDS publication_ids: 58, 59, 60, 61
- contributing intelligence run_ids: 54, 57, 60, 63
- readiness: READY
- evidence version: weekly_evidence.v1.2026-08-24
- composer version: weekly_composers.v4.2026-08-24
- return basis: equal-weight basket of adj_close, 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-11
Underlying Polaris Modules
- Rotation Pulse (V1)
- PCA
- prices_daily
- PDS archive