Polaris Weekly Subscription · Week ending Friday, September 18, 2026
The Fed Raised Rates a Quarter Point.
The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point, to 3.75%–4.00%.
PWS · Published 2026-09-18T20:27:42.181094Z · Publication ID 72 · Revision 1 · Template dcdebefbd9958e93
POLARIS’S READ THIS WEEK
Broad Commodities, Software and Gold Miners held the top third of Polaris's equity ranking all week. Semiconductors climbed from 16th to 3rd to join them; Mag 7 climbed from 6th to 4th to join them; Silver Miners slipped from 4th to 8th and out.
Two risks stayed flagged on every session: leadership concentration and thesis invalidation.
Gold itself returned +0.6% this week. Of the 43 canonical complexes Polaris measures in both frames, 11 rose in dollars — and every one of them also gained against gold, because gold barely moved.
What argues against this read: Ethereum is -2.52% over 21 days in dollars but +3.41% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways — whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex. Gold Miners is -1.89% over 21 days in dollars but +1.20% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways — whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex.
THIS WEEK’S CATALYST
The Fed Raises Rates
Wednesday. The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point, to 3.75%–4.00%. Going in, fed funds futures priced 25bp hike at 90%. On the session gold fell 0.6% and bitcoin rose 0.7%.
Across the week, the strongest crypto basket led at +9.7% and Uranium fell furthest at -4.0%. Of 27 tracked complexes, 12 advanced; the average equity complex returned -1.0% and the average crypto complex +6.2%.
SIGNAL 1 / 3 · where did leadership develop this week?
Weekly Opportunity Watch
Complexes whose leadership developed across the week's sessions. Not recommendations.
Semiconductors
↑↑
Ranking, start → end 16 → 3 of 20Week return +2.2%In Opportunity Watch 1 of 5 sessions
Polaris Read
Semiconductors climbed from 16th to 3rd on Polaris's 21-day ranking this week, moving into its top third. It first appeared in Opportunity Watch on Friday and was still there on Friday.
Watch For
Whether Semiconductors keeps a top-third place through next week. Slipping back out would mean this week's move did not stick.
Mag 7
↑↑
Ranking, start → end 6 → 4 of 20Week return +1.0%In Opportunity Watch 5 of 5 sessions
Polaris Read
Mag 7 climbed from 6th to 4th on Polaris's 21-day ranking this week, moving into its top third.
Watch For
Whether Mag 7 keeps a top-third place through next week. Slipping back out would mean this week's move did not stick.
Insurance
↑
Ranking, start → end 8 → 7 of 20Week return +0.1%In Opportunity Watch 4 of 5 sessions
Polaris Read
Insurance climbed from 8th to 7th on Polaris's ranking, though it has not reached the top third. It first appeared in Opportunity Watch on Tuesday and was still there on Friday.
Watch For
Whether Insurance reaches the top third. Until it does, this is improvement, not leadership.
SIGNAL 2 / 3 · what stayed dangerous all week?
Weekly Risk Watch
Every risk, across every session of the week. Green = low concern · Amber = watch · Red = warning.
Active all week · 5 of 5
Leadership concentration
Flagged on all 5 sessions. Multi-week relative-strength deterioration in Defense, Uranium while a narrower set of leadership categories carries a disproportionate share of index performance.
Changed during the week
Market Stress — Low
Elevated on 3 of 5 sessions. It read Low on Thursday, September 17. It read Low on Friday, September 18.
Active all week · 5 of 5
Thesis invalidation
Flagged on all 5 sessions. Contradicted thesis(es) in the Polaris Laboratory: Currency Debasement.
Weak all week · 5 of 5
Persistent weakness — Industrials, Uranium and Defense
Flagged as weakening on all 5 sessions and in the bottom third of Polaris's equity ranking at both ends of the week. Final ranks of 20: Industrials 17th, Uranium 19th and Defense 20th.
SIGNAL 3 / 3 · how did the week move the major complexes?
Wen Moon — Weekly
How did the week move the major complexes?
AI / HYPERSCALERS↑
Unsettled all week · Advancing together
AI / Hyperscalers never settled this week: its leadership split on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and it read advancing together on Friday.
SILVER→
Changed · Stalling
Silver went from weakening on Monday to stalling by Friday. The miners outpaced silver on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
21D -0.2% 63D +0.7% 252D +58.5%
BROAD EQUITIES→
Unsettled all week · Stalling
Broad equities never settled this week: it weakened on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and it stalled on Thursday and Friday.
21D -1.0% 63D +2.0% 252D +15.5%
GOLD↓
Unsettled all week · Weakening — miners leading
Gold never settled this week: it weakened on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday and it stalled on Thursday. The miners outpaced gold on every session.
21D -3.0% 63D +3.6% 252D +19.1%
CRYPTO↓
Unsettled all week · Weakest major complex
Crypto never settled this week: it weakened on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and it trailed the major complexes on Thursday and Friday.
21D -4.8% 63D +19.8% 252D -16.1%
Where the strength is
By Friday the ordering was AI / Hyperscalers → Silver → Broad equities → Gold → Crypto. The miners outpaced gold on every session this week. Crypto is -4.8% over 21 days and +19.8% over 63 — a pullback inside a stronger quarter, with -16.1% over the year. Gold is -3.0% over 21 days and +3.6% over 63 — a pullback inside a stronger quarter, with +19.1% over the year.
The Golden Derby · Preseason
The Golden Derby
Race Against the Machine
Preseason standings through Friday, September 18. Official competition begins October 1, with all five indexes at 100.00.
| Rk | Fund | This week | Preseason | Preseason vs S&P | Preseason vs Gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KB ActiveLeader | +2.12% | +3.23% | +3.26pp | +2.89pp |
| 2 | KB Forever | -0.00% | +0.93% | +0.96pp | +0.59pp |
| 3 | GoldStale | -0.41% | +0.34% | +0.37pp | — |
| 4 | S&P 500 | -0.35% | -0.03% | — | -0.37pp |
| 5 | Polaris DynamicDynamic | +1.37% | -1.15% | -0.03pp | -0.08pp |
Polaris Dynamic joined the preseason on Friday, September 4; its comparisons with the S&P 500 and gold run from that date.
Won the week
KB Active
+2.12% on the week
Preseason leader
KB Active
+3.23% preseason
Beating both benchmarks
2 of 3 funds
preseason
Polaris Dynamic
This week — what Polaris held
GDX 60% · PDBC 30% · XLE 10%
This week's return
+1.37%
This week vs S&P
+1.72pp
This week vs Gold
+1.79pp
Friday decision — next holding period
Previous
- GDX 60%
- PDBC 30%
- XLE 10%
Next
- IGV 50%new
- PDBC 50%raised
Why Polaris changed
IGV entered at 50% — qualified on both of Polaris's independent routes, 13% above its 200-day average. GDX remained eligible but qualified on both of Polaris's independent routes, and the book filled with names confirmed on both first. XLE remained eligible but confirmed on only one of Polaris's two routes, and the book filled with names confirmed on both first.
Polaris Stock Screens · Screened opportunities
Polaris Stock Screens
Systematic screening results · not portfolio recommendations.
Momentum & Volume0 stocks passed
No qualifiers todayNo stocks currently pass the Polaris Momentum & Volume Screen.
ValueTop 10 of 275 eligible
The 0–100 score measures the combination of valuation and quality under this screen. Higher means stronger measured characteristics — not upside, not odds.
1TROW
94 / 100
Why it ranks
Balanced: valuation 94 (cheap), quality 94 (durable).
P/E10.5×
FCF yield9.1%
Quality94
On this screen all 7 sessions since it began on Sep 10
2ACGL
Insurance
91 / 100
Why it ranks
Valuation-led: valuation 97 (cheap), quality 76 (durable).
P/E7.6×
FCF yield13.0%
Quality76
On this screen all 7 sessions since it began on Sep 10
3FSLR
up 3
90 / 100
Why it ranks
Balanced: valuation 89 (cheap), quality 92 (durable).
P/E12.1×
FCF yield7.6%
Quality92
On this screen all 7 sessions since it began on Sep 10
4GL
down 1
Insurance
89 / 100
Why it ranks
Balanced: valuation 90 (cheap), quality 87 (durable).
P/E11.5×
FCF yield8.7%
Quality87
On this screen all 7 sessions since it began on Sep 10
5MO
down 1
88 / 100
Why it ranks
Valuation-led: valuation 94 (cheap), quality 74 (durable).
P/E14.6×
FCF yield7.8%
Quality74
On this screen all 7 sessions since it began on Sep 10
6CINF
down 1
Insurance
88 / 100
Why it ranks
P/E8.0×
FCF yield11.5%
Quality94
On this screen all 7 sessions since it began on Sep 10
7FIS
87 / 100
Why it ranks
P/E5.5×
FCF yield14.4%
Quality61
On this screen all 7 sessions since it began on Sep 10
8LULU
86 / 100
Why it ranks
P/E8.1×
FCF yield10.6%
Quality75
On this screen all 7 sessions since it began on Sep 10
9EXE
up 2
Energy
85 / 100
Why it ranks
P/E7.5×
FCF yield7.2%
Quality78
On this screen all 7 sessions since it began on Sep 10
Energy is not currently a Polaris leadership signal; this is a valuation and quality result on its own terms.
10ALL
down 1
Insurance
84 / 100
Why it ranks
P/E5.0×
FCF yield24.0%
Quality92
On this screen all 7 sessions since it began on Sep 10
Value clusterInsurance· Broader confirmation
7 of the Top 20 Value qualifiers are Insurance stocks.
ACGL · GL · CINF · ALL · TRV · AFL · HIG
Insurance is also improving across both of Polaris's ranking horizons — bottom-up value and top-down leadership are pointing the same way.
The Week Ahead · what would change the read?
The Week Ahead
What Polaris learned
- Leadership was stable, not static: three complexes held the top third all week, while the changes Polaris could measure came at its edge.
What matters next
- Insurance: on the watch since Tuesday and up from 8th to 7th. It has not reached the top third.
- Semiconductors: in Opportunity Watch on Friday only. One session is not yet a pattern; a second would start one.
- Emerging Markets: left Opportunity Watch during the week. A return would matter; continued absence would confirm the fade.
- Initial Jobless Claims: due Next Thursday (2026-09-24). Weekly claims have been mixed, so the next reading is the clearest near-term test of whether that continues.
The test
- The read holds if Broad Commodities, Software and Gold Miners keep their places in the top third next week.
- It weakens if that group gives up rank broadly, or if the complexes that emerged this week fail to reappear.
- It changes if Semiconductors and Mag 7 slip back out — that would say this week's move into leadership did not stick.
END OF PART ONE
That's the Polaris Weekly.
Everything below is The Sauce — the data and evidence behind the read.
The Sauce
Supporting Weekly Intelligence
9 · Weekly Returns
How did every tracked complex do this week?
Measured close to close, from Friday, September 11 to Friday, September 18. The first table is Polaris's ranking universe, whose crypto rows are the ranking engine's own tiers and themes. The second is the canonical complex registry, in dollars and against gold.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
Polaris's ranking universe, best to worst
- Tier 3: Cached alts (16-coin basket) (Crypto tier): +9.69%
- Theme: Smart Contract Leaders (Crypto theme): +8.10%
- Theme: ISO / Settlement Networks (Crypto theme): +6.51%
- Theme: Stablecoin Infrastructure (Crypto theme): +5.49%
- Tier 1: BTC (Crypto tier): +5.04%
- Theme: Payment Rails (Crypto theme): +5.01%
- Tier 2: ETH (Crypto tier): +3.85%
- Semiconductors (Equity): +2.24%
- Precious Metals (Equity): +1.64%
- Mag 7 (Equity): +1.01%
- Software (Equity): +0.61%
- Insurance (Equity): +0.13%
- Defense (Equity): -0.22%
- Large Caps (Equity): -0.36%
- Broad Commodities (Equity): -0.54%
- Silver Miners (Equity): -0.98%
- Materials (Equity): -1.06%
- Gold Miners (Equity): -1.20%
- Small Caps (Equity): -1.43%
- Emerging Markets (Equity): -1.44%
- Mid Caps (Equity): -1.84%
- Pipelines (Equity): -1.85%
- REITs (Equity): -1.97%
- Industrials (Equity): -2.16%
- Utilities (Equity): -2.99%
- Energy (Equity): -3.58%
- Uranium (Equity): -4.03%
Canonical complexes — dollars and gold
- Copper: +3.73% in dollars · +3.09% against gold
- Silver: +3.08% in dollars · +2.45% against gold
- Software: +2.87% in dollars · +2.24% against gold
- Healthcare: +1.83% in dollars · +1.21% against gold
- US Dollar: +1.10% in dollars · +0.49% against gold
- Nasdaq 100: +0.92% in dollars · +0.30% against gold
- Semiconductors: +0.79% in dollars · +0.17% against gold
- Gold: +0.61% in dollars · +0.00% against gold
- Long Treasuries: +0.47% in dollars · -0.14% against gold
- Investment Grade Credit: +0.35% in dollars · -0.27% against gold
- Biotech: +0.28% in dollars · -0.34% against gold
- Cash: +0.06% in dollars · -0.55% against gold
- High Yield Credit: -0.08% in dollars · -0.69% against gold
- Short Treasuries: -0.16% in dollars · -0.77% against gold
- Intermediate Treasuries: -0.23% in dollars · -0.84% against gold
- US Large Cap: -0.36% in dollars · -0.97% against gold
- China: -0.52% in dollars · -1.13% against gold
- Broad Commodities: -0.54% in dollars · -1.15% against gold
- Consumer Staples: -0.66% in dollars · -1.27% against gold
- Robotics & Automation: -0.77% in dollars · -1.38% against gold
- Bitcoin: -1.00% in dollars · -1.60% against gold
- Emerging Markets: -1.17% in dollars · -1.78% against gold
- Equal Weight S&P: -1.20% in dollars · -1.80% against gold
- Energy: -1.24% in dollars · -1.85% against gold
- Silver Miners: -1.27% in dollars · -1.87% against gold
- Grid & Electrification: -1.40% in dollars · -2.00% against gold
- Industrials: -1.54% in dollars · -2.14% against gold
- Communications: -1.57% in dollars · -2.17% against gold
- Developed ex-US: -1.60% in dollars · -2.20% against gold
- Gold Miners: -1.66% in dollars · -2.26% against gold
- Midstream: -1.66% in dollars · -2.26% against gold
- US Small Cap: -1.68% in dollars · -2.28% against gold
- Consumer Discretionary: -1.72% in dollars · -2.32% against gold
- US Mid Cap: -1.84% in dollars · -2.44% against gold
- Materials: -1.89% in dollars · -2.49% against gold
- REITs: -1.97% in dollars · -2.57% against gold
- Infrastructure: -2.10% in dollars · -2.70% against gold
- Aerospace & Defense: -2.39% in dollars · -2.98% against gold
- Financials: -2.39% in dollars · -2.99% against gold
- Ethereum: -2.69% in dollars · -3.28% against gold
- Agriculture: -2.70% in dollars · -3.29% against gold
- Utilities: -3.07% in dollars · -3.66% against gold
- Uranium: -4.03% in dollars · -4.61% against gold
- Nuclear Power: -4.82% in dollars · -5.40% against gold
- Volatility: -6.00% in dollars · — against gold (gold-relative excluded: not economically applicable. An index of implied variance divided by the gold price has no interpretation.)
- Where a name appears in both tables the two returns can differ: the ranking universe averages that category's full basket, which may carry additional single names, while a canonical row is the complex's own instrument. They measure different things.
- Gold frame measured against GLD. Polaris's canonical gold numeraire is GC=F; the return layer has not migrated, a difference of about 0.1-0.3 percentage points per complex.
Canonical complexes Polaris could not measure this week
- Crude Oil: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-09-18 can be measured from it
- Natural Gas: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-09-18 can be measured from it
- Clean Energy: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-09-18 can be measured from it
- Cybersecurity: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-09-18 can be measured from it
- Regional Banks: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-09-18 can be measured from it
- Altcoin Market: — · derived index not yet constructed and no historical constituent membership has ever been stored. Rebuilding past levels from today's constituents would be survivorship bias, so every horizon stays NULL until genuine membership accrues forward.
What argues against this week's read
- Ethereum is -2.52% over 21 days in dollars but +3.41% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
- Gold Miners is -1.89% over 21 days in dollars but +1.20% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
- Polaris called Emerging Markets improving on 2 session(s) and it returned -1.17% · resolved by: next week's return: the assertion is about relative position over 21 days, and one week against it is not yet a refutation
- Investment Grade Credit is -1.77% over 21 days in dollars but +1.32% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
- High Yield Credit is -1.47% over 21 days in dollars but +1.63% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
10 · Leadership Ranking
Where did each equity complex start and finish the week?
Polaris's 21-day leadership ranking on the week's first session (Monday, September 14) and last (Friday, September 18), on a scale of 20. The top third is ranks 1 to 6.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
First session → last session
- Broad Commodities: 1 → 1 · held the top third
- Software: 5 → 2 · held the top third
- Semiconductors: 16 → 3 · moved into the top third
- Energy: 3 at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
- Mag 7: 6 → 4 · moved into the top third
- Gold Miners: 2 → 5 · held the top third
- Emerging Markets: 7 → 6 · improved
- Insurance: 8 → 7 · improved
- Silver Miners: 4 → 8 · left the top third
- Precious Metals: 11 at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
- Materials: 13 at week end · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
- Small Caps: 16 at week end · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
- Mid Caps: 17 at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
- Industrials: 19 → 17 · bottom third at both ends
- Utilities: 14 → 18 · bottom third at both ends
- Uranium: 18 → 19 · bottom third at both ends
- Defense: 20 → 20 · bottom third at both ends
- Large Caps: None at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
- REITs: None at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
- Pipelines: None at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
11 · Conviction Ledger
What did Polaris assert during the week, and for how long?
Every conviction the week's daily editions carried, one line per subject.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
What Polaris flagged, and when
- Defense: deteriorating on every session (Capital Flow)
- Industrials: deteriorating on every session (Capital Flow)
- Leadership concentration: flagged on every session (Risk Watch)
- Mag 7: improving on every session (Capital Flow and Opportunity Watch)
- Thesis invalidation: flagged on every session (Risk Watch)
- Uranium: deteriorating on every session (Capital Flow)
- Insurance: improving from Tuesday to Friday (Capital Flow and Opportunity Watch)
- Broad Commodities: improving from Monday to Wednesday (Capital Flow and Opportunity Watch)
- Market Stress — Elevated: flagged from Monday to Wednesday (Risk Watch)
- Emerging Markets: improving on Monday and Thursday (Capital Flow and Opportunity Watch)
- Market Stress — Low: flagged from Thursday to Friday (Risk Watch)
- Semiconductors: improving on Friday (Capital Flow and Opportunity Watch)
12 · Confidence and Provenance
How sure is Polaris, and what was this edition built from?
Confidence HIGH: 5 of 5 conditions met.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
Confidence conditions
- Every session of the week has a published daily: yes
- The leadership ranking covers the whole week: yes
- No outstanding data gaps: yes
- Enough complexes measured to rank: yes
- Price and ranking agree on the week's extremes: yes
Provenance
- Week: Friday, September 11 close to Friday, September 18 close
- Daily editions: #65 (Monday), #68 (Tuesday), #69 (Wednesday), #70 (Thursday), #71 (Friday)
- Readiness: ready
- Method versions: weekly_evidence.v1.2026-08-24 · weekly_composers.v4.2026-08-24 · weekly_signals.v1.2026-09-12
- BTC-USD close, Friday, September 18: 81,112.68 (provisional; observed 20:02 UTC)
- ETH-USD close, Friday, September 18: 2,632.38 (provisional; observed 20:02 UTC)
- SPY close, Friday, September 18: 761.54 (settled; observed 20:04 UTC)