Polaris Weekly — Week ending Friday, September 25, 2026
Polaris Weekly Subscription
The Same Four Leaders Held All Week
Semiconductors, Mag 7, Broad Commodities and Software held the top third of Polaris's equity ranking from the first session of the week to the last.
Signal 1 / 3 · where is the opportunity?
Opportunity Watch
Rank 1 is strongest; the band is the top third.
SemiconductorsTOP THIRD
1 of 20Rank now
↑1Change over this week
Semiconductors stayed in the top third of Polaris's ranking from the first session to the last, finishing 1st.
Mag 7TOP THIRD
2 of 20Rank now
↓1Change over this week
Mag 7 stayed in the top third of Polaris's ranking from the first session to the last, finishing 2nd. Opportunity Watch, which flags complexes climbing the ranking, featured it only on Monday; its place in the top third never slipped.
SoftwareTOP THIRD
5 of 20Rank now
↓1Change over this week
Software stayed in the top third of Polaris's ranking from the first session to the last, finishing 5th.
Polaris's read · this week
Polaris's Read
Three risks stayed flagged on every session: Currency Debasement Monitor, leadership concentration and Market Stress — LOW.
Gold itself returned -1.9% this week.
What moved the week
Crypto Ran. Gold Miners Broke.
Across the week, the strongest crypto theme led at +14.3% and Insurance fell furthest at -4.4%. Of 27 tracked complexes, 14 advanced; the average equity complex returned -0.8% and the average crypto complex +7.8%.
Signal 2 / 3 · what could hurt me?
Risk Watch
A filled cell is a session on which this risk was flagged; a monitor's cells carry its condition count.
Leadership concentrationWATCH
Flagged on all 5 sessions. Multi-week relative-strength deterioration in Silver Miners, Uranium while a narrower set of leadership categories carries a disproportionate share of index performance.
Market Stress — LowWATCH
Flagged on all 5 sessions. Systemic stress remains limited, with 2 distinct stress conditions present. Crash Cascade reads "Isolated stress".
Currency Debasement MonitorWATCH
Flagged on all 5 sessions. 1 of 6 conditions firing for the Currency Debasement regime. The one firing: Gold miners (GDX) above 200d SMA.
Persistent weakness — Silver MinersWATCH
Flagged as weakening on all 5 sessions and in the bottom third of Polaris's equity ranking at both ends of the week. Final ranks of 20: Silver Miners 19th.
Signal 3 / 3 · How did the week move the major complexes?
Wen Moon — Weekly
How did the week move the major complexes?
AI / HYPERSCALERS, SILVER AND GOLD HELD THEIR POSITION ALL WEEK.
AI / HYPERSCALERS↑
Held all week · Advancing together
AI / Hyperscalers was advancing together on every session this week.
CRYPTO↑
Unsettled all week · Advancing
Crypto never settled this week: it read advancing on Monday and Friday and it led the major complexes on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
21D +3.8% 63D +29.7% 252D -11.7%
BROAD EQUITIES→
Unsettled all week · Stalling
Broad equities never settled this week: it read advancing on Monday and Tuesday and it stalled on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
21D +0.7% 63D +5.8% 252D +16.7%
SILVER↓
Held all week · Weakening
Silver was weakening on every session this week. The miners outpaced silver on Tuesday.
21D -5.6% 63D +9.1% 252D +46.0%
GOLD↓
Held all week · Weakest major complex
Gold was the weakest major complex on every session this week. The miners outpaced gold on Tuesday.
21D -6.6% 63D +5.3% 252D +14.6%
The tape
Market Heat Map
Total return over each window, same clock for every row.
Altcoin Market: longer history is still building; unavailable periods are not estimated.
Every row is read at the U.S. session close (4:00 PM ET) on exactly these dates, settled observations only, with no value carried forward. A row with no observation inside a window shows —. Shading compares rows within a column, not across columns.
Testable
Opportunity Triggers
Checkable against Polaris's own ranking at the next close.
Semiconductorsholds top-third rank
Mag 7holds top-third rank
Softwareholds top-third rank
Names
Polaris Stock Screens
Systematic screening results · not portfolio recommendations.
Weekly Value Top 5
1.0TROW5 of 5 sessions
93
2.4ACGL5 of 5 sessions
91
2.8FSLR5 of 5 sessions
92
3.8GL5 of 5 sessions
90
5.4MO5 of 5 sessions
89
Eligible every session, ranked by mean daily rank; the final session breaks ties. Left column is the mean rank.
Breakout qualifiers — during the week
1.0AMD3 of 5 sessions · not on the final session's list
65
2.0FFIV2 of 5 sessions · not on the final session's list
45
2.0FTNT2 of 5 sessions · not on the final session's list
42
3.0DE1 of 5 sessions · not on the final session's list
30
Cleared a breakout screen on any session this week.
What the crowd is doing
News & Sentiment
Positioning, not prediction
CNN Fear & Greed
37Fear
as of 2026-09-25
Crypto Fear & Greed
—
no reading for this session
Polaris Sentiment
66Greed
as of 2026-09-25
Crypto Fear & Greed has no reading for this session. Polaris reports the gap rather than carrying an older value forward.
Governed headlines, last 24 hours
topDow jumps more than 470 points Friday; stocks notch winning week despite Treasury yield surge: Live updates
topAirlines waive change fees ahead of nor'easter as flight delays trickle in
worldOil Prices Fall as U.S.-Iran Diplomacy, Regional Tensions Remain in Focus
XLESector Update: Energy Stocks Fall Late Afternoon
BTC-USDSector Update: Financial Stocks Rise Late Afternoon
End of Part OneEverything below is the evidence behind it.
Falsifiability
Opportunity Contracts
What would confirm or break each setup, in full.
Semiconductors
StateIN THE TOP THIRDConfirms ifHolds a top-third rank (1–6 of 20)Breaks ifFalls back outside the top third (worse than 6 of 20)
Mag 7
StateIN THE TOP THIRDConfirms ifHolds a top-third rank (1–6 of 20)Breaks ifFalls back outside the top third (worse than 6 of 20)
Software
StateIN THE TOP THIRDConfirms ifHolds a top-third rank (1–6 of 20)Breaks ifFalls back outside the top third (worse than 6 of 20)
The long view
Polaris Laboratory
9 theses evaluated on 2026-09-25 · 0 consistent · 8 mixed · 1 falsified · 1 not evaluable
Two instruments share this subject and answer different questions. The monitor counts market conditions. The Laboratory tests a thesis against its own pre-declared signals. They can disagree at the same moment, and this week they do.
CURRENCY DEBASEMENT MONITOR
11111
1 of 6 conditions firing on every session of the week.
Firing
Not firing
A condition count, not a thesis verdict. Source: regime/conditions.py CURRENCY_DEBASEMENT.
MONETARY DEBASEMENTMIXED
MTWTF
Fiat currency is being debased faster than gold supply is growing; gold and BTC relative value structurally rising.
Evidence for (2 of 6)
✓m2sl growth positive — +1890.6 over 21d
✓TCMDO growth positive — +34728137.000 over 21d
Evidence against (1 of 5)
✗DXY above 200d And rising — UUP 28.62 vs 200d 27.73; 21d +1.92%
Measured, not firing
·DXY weakening 63D — UUP +0.14% 63d
·real yields negative Or declining — real yield +1.40%, 63d slope +0.71pp
Data gaps
?BTC Gap ratio elevated
?gold Gap ratio elevated
?gold Gap ratio extreme
State from hypothesis_daily_evaluations; each signal from hypothesis_signal_evaluations. Data mixed (2/6 confirmation signals, 1/5 falsification signals firing); hypothesis remains under active test.
AI Capex Late StageFALSIFIED2/5 confirming · 3/5 falsifying · held 6 evaluations
The Laboratory tests each thesis against its own pre-declared confirming and falsifying signals. It reports consistent, mixed or falsified, and nothing else may produce one of those words. Source: hypothesis_daily_evaluations + hypothesis_signal_evaluations.
Deep dive
The Sauce
The full evidence, section by section.
The Golden Derby · Preseason
The Golden Derby
Race Against the Machine
Preseason standings through Friday, September 25. Official competition begins October 1, with all five indexes at 100.00.
Golden Derby preseason standings
Rk
Fund
This week
Preseason
Preseason vs S&P
Preseason vs Gold
1
KB ActiveLeader
+1.72%
+5.00%
+3.75pp
+5.51pp
2
S&P 500
+1.29%
+1.26%
—
+1.76pp
3
Polaris DynamicDynamic
+1.27%
+0.10%
-0.05pp
+2.44pp
4
KB Forever
-1.24%
-0.32%
-1.57pp
+0.19pp
5
Gold
-2.24%
-0.51%
-1.76pp
—
Polaris Dynamic joined the preseason on Friday, September 4; its comparisons with the S&P 500 and gold run from that date.
Won the week
KB Active
+1.72% on the week
Preseason leader
KB Active
+5.00% preseason
Beating both benchmarks
1 of 3 funds
preseason
Polaris Dynamic
This week — what Polaris held
IGV 50% · PDBC 50%
This week's return
+1.27%
This week vs S&P
-0.02pp
This week vs Gold
+3.50pp
Friday decision — next holding period
Previous
IGV 50%
PDBC 50%
→
Next
IGV 60%raised
PDBC 40%cut
The Week Ahead · what would change the read?
The Week Ahead
What Polaris learned
Leadership was stable: four complexes held the top third all week.
What matters next
Insurance: on the watch since Tuesday. Next week shows whether that lasts.
Large Caps: in Opportunity Watch on Friday only. One session is not yet a pattern; a second would start one.
Emerging Markets: left Opportunity Watch during the week. A return would matter; continued absence would confirm the fade.
PCE Price Index: due Next Wednesday (2026-09-30). PCE inflation has been mixed, so the next reading is the clearest near-term test of whether that continues.
The test
The read holds if Semiconductors, Mag 7, Broad Commodities and Software keep their places in the top third next week.
It weakens if that group gives up rank broadly, or if the complexes that emerged this week fail to reappear.
Weekly Returns
How did every tracked complex do this week?
Measured close to close, from Friday, September 18 to Friday, September 25. The first table is Polaris's ranking universe, whose crypto rows are the ranking engine's own tiers and themes. The second is the canonical complex registry, in dollars and against gold.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
Polaris's ranking universe, best to worst
Theme: ISO / Settlement Networks (Crypto theme): +14.29%
Semiconductors: +5.86% in dollars · +7.96% against gold
Bitcoin: +4.30% in dollars · +6.37% against gold
Robotics & Automation: +3.21% in dollars · +5.26% against gold
Nasdaq 100: +3.19% in dollars · +5.24% against gold
Ethereum: +2.91% in dollars · +4.95% against gold
Copper: +2.43% in dollars · +4.47% against gold
Communications: +1.91% in dollars · +3.94% against gold
Software: +1.56% in dollars · +3.58% against gold
Emerging Markets: +1.43% in dollars · +3.45% against gold
Healthcare: +1.38% in dollars · +3.39% against gold
Agriculture: +1.35% in dollars · +3.36% against gold
US Large Cap: +1.27% in dollars · +3.28% against gold
Infrastructure: +0.97% in dollars · +2.98% against gold
US Dollar: +0.81% in dollars · +2.81% against gold
Grid & Electrification: +0.74% in dollars · +2.74% against gold
Developed ex-US: +0.57% in dollars · +2.57% against gold
Industrials: +0.39% in dollars · +2.39% against gold
Cash: +0.07% in dollars · +2.05% against gold
Aerospace & Defense: -0.03% in dollars · +1.95% against gold
Short Treasuries: -0.04% in dollars · +1.95% against gold
US Mid Cap: -0.13% in dollars · +1.86% against gold
Volatility: -0.14% in dollars · — against gold (gold-relative excluded: not economically applicable. An index of implied variance divided by the gold price has no interpretation.)
Consumer Staples: -0.22% in dollars · +1.76% against gold
Materials: -0.40% in dollars · +1.58% against gold
Consumer Discretionary: -0.42% in dollars · +1.55% against gold
Equal Weight S&P: -0.56% in dollars · +1.42% against gold
US Small Cap: -0.75% in dollars · +1.22% against gold
High Yield Credit: -0.86% in dollars · +1.11% against gold
Intermediate Treasuries: -0.88% in dollars · +1.09% against gold
Broad Commodities: -0.91% in dollars · +1.06% against gold
China: -1.02% in dollars · +0.95% against gold
Biotech: -1.08% in dollars · +0.89% against gold
REITs: -1.24% in dollars · +0.72% against gold
Investment Grade Credit: -1.42% in dollars · +0.53% against gold
Financials: -1.84% in dollars · +0.10% against gold
Nuclear Power: -1.85% in dollars · +0.10% against gold
Gold: -1.95% in dollars · +0.00% against gold
Long Treasuries: -2.38% in dollars · -0.44% against gold
Uranium: -2.40% in dollars · -0.47% against gold
Gold Miners: -2.73% in dollars · -0.80% against gold
Silver: -3.00% in dollars · -1.08% against gold
Utilities: -3.11% in dollars · -1.19% against gold
Energy: -3.50% in dollars · -1.58% against gold
Midstream: -3.53% in dollars · -1.61% against gold
Silver Miners: -3.83% in dollars · -1.92% against gold
Where a name appears in both tables the two returns can differ: the ranking universe averages that category's full basket, which may carry additional single names, while a canonical row is the complex's own instrument. They measure different things.
Gold frame measured against GLD. Polaris's canonical gold numeraire is GC=F; the return layer has not migrated, a difference of about 0.1-0.3 percentage points per complex.
Canonical complexes Polaris could not measure this week
Crude Oil: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-09-25 can be measured from it
Natural Gas: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-09-25 can be measured from it
Clean Energy: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-09-25 can be measured from it
Cybersecurity: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-09-25 can be measured from it
Regional Banks: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-09-25 can be measured from it
Altcoin Market: — · derived index not yet constructed and no historical constituent membership has ever been stored. Rebuilding past levels from today's constituents would be survivorship bias, so every horizon stays NULL until genuine membership accrues forward.
What argues against this week's read
Midstream is -4.40% over 21 days in dollars but +2.40% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Silver is -5.62% over 21 days in dollars but +1.09% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Long Treasuries is -4.41% over 21 days in dollars but +2.38% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Investment Grade Credit is -2.94% over 21 days in dollars but +3.96% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Healthcare is -1.63% over 21 days in dollars but +5.36% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
China is -4.44% over 21 days in dollars but +2.35% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Infrastructure is -4.87% over 21 days in dollars but +1.90% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Intermediate Treasuries is -3.21% over 21 days in dollars but +3.67% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
High Yield Credit is -2.03% over 21 days in dollars but +4.94% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
US Small Cap is -5.68% over 21 days in dollars but +1.03% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Developed ex-US is -2.49% over 21 days in dollars but +4.44% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Equal Weight S&P is -4.95% over 21 days in dollars but +1.80% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Consumer Discretionary is -5.63% over 21 days in dollars but +1.07% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Industrials is -5.50% over 21 days in dollars but +1.22% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Consumer Staples is -4.86% over 21 days in dollars but +1.91% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
US Mid Cap is -4.66% over 21 days in dollars but +2.11% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Leadership Ranking
Where did each equity complex start and finish the week?
Polaris's 21-day leadership ranking on the week's first session (Monday, September 21) and last (Friday, September 25), on a scale of 20. The top third is ranks 1 to 6.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
First session → last session
Semiconductors: 2 → 1 · held the top third
Mag 7: 1 → 2 · held the top third
Broad Commodities: 3 → 3 · held the top third
Industrials: 4 at week end · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Software: 4 → 5 · held the top third
Emerging Markets: 5 at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Large Caps: 6 at week end · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Insurance: 7 → 9 · weakened
Energy: 11 at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Precious Metals: 12 → 11 · improved
Gold Miners: 8 → 14 · weakened
Materials: 15 at week end · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
REITs: 18 → 16 · bottom third at both ends
Small Caps: 16 at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Defense: 20 → 17 · bottom third at both ends
Utilities: 19 → 18 · bottom third at both ends
Silver Miners: 17 → 19 · bottom third at both ends
Uranium: 20 at week end · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Mid Caps: not ranked in either session · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Pipelines: not ranked in either session · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Conviction Ledger
What did Polaris assert during the week, and for how long?
Every conviction the week's daily editions carried, one line per subject.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
What Polaris flagged, and when
Currency Debasement Monitor: flagged on every session (Risk Watch)
Leadership concentration: flagged on every session (Risk Watch)
Market Stress — Low: flagged on every session (Risk Watch)
Semiconductors: improving on every session (Leadership & Rotation and Opportunity Watch)
Gold Miners: deteriorating from Tuesday to Friday (Leadership & Rotation)
Insurance: improving from Tuesday to Friday (Leadership & Rotation and Opportunity Watch)
Silver Miners: deteriorating on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday (Leadership & Rotation)
Uranium: deteriorating from Tuesday to Friday (Leadership & Rotation)
Industrials: improving from Tuesday to Thursday (Leadership & Rotation and Opportunity Watch)
Defense: deteriorating on Monday (Leadership & Rotation)
Emerging Markets: improving on Monday (Leadership & Rotation and Opportunity Watch)
Large Caps: improving on Friday (Leadership & Rotation and Opportunity Watch)
Mag 7: improving on Monday (Leadership & Rotation and Opportunity Watch)
Materials: deteriorating on Tuesday (Leadership & Rotation)
Precious Metals: deteriorating on Monday (Leadership & Rotation)
Confidence and Provenance
How sure is Polaris, and what was this edition built from?
Confidence HIGH: 5 of 5 conditions met.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
Confidence conditions
Every session of the week has a published daily: yes
The leadership ranking covers the whole week: yes
No outstanding data gaps: yes
Enough complexes measured to rank: yes
Price and ranking agree on the week's extremes: yes
Provenance
Week: Friday, September 18 close to Friday, September 25 close