Polaris Weekly — Week ending Friday, October 2, 2026
POLARIS WEEKLY
Week Ending Friday, October 2, 2026
Insurance Joined the Leaders. Energy Fell Out.
On Polaris's 21-day ranking, Insurance climbed from 7th to 5th while Energy slipped from 5th to 11th.
Signal 1 / 3 · where is the opportunity?
Opportunity Watch
Rank 1 is strongest; the band is the top third.
IndustrialsDeveloping leadership
2 of 20Rank now
↑2Change over this week
Industrials stayed in the top third of Polaris's ranking from the first session to the last, finishing 2nd. Industrials entered Opportunity Watch on Tuesday and remained through Friday.
InsuranceEntered leadership this week
5 of 20Rank now
↑2Change over this week
Insurance climbed from 7th to 5th on Polaris's 21-day ranking this week, moving into its top third.
SemiconductorsPersistent leadership
1 of 20Rank now
unchangedChange over this week
Semiconductors stayed in the top third of Polaris's ranking from the first session to the last, finishing 1st.
Polaris's read · this week
Two Releases This Week
Wednesday. PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in August, to 131.6 — in line with its recent range.
On the session gold fell 0.5%.
What matters next week
NEXT THURSDAY — Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly claims have been flat, so the next reading is the clearest near-term test of whether that continues.
Signal 2 / 3 · what could hurt me?
Risk Watch
A filled cell is a session on which this risk was flagged; a monitor's cells carry its condition count.
Leadership concentrationWATCH
Flagged on all 5 sessions.
Market Stress — LowWATCH
Stress conditions were elevated on 3 of 5 sessions, but the week ended LOW on Monday and Friday.
Currency Debasement MonitorWATCH
Flagged on 2 of 5 sessions, last on Tuesday. 0 of 6 conditions firing for the Currency Debasement regime.
Mid-Cycle Concentration MonitorWATCH
Flagged on 3 of 5 sessions, last on Friday. 4 of 6 conditions firing for the Mid-Cycle Concentration regime.
Persistent weakness — Gold Miners, Silver Miners and UraniumWATCH
Flagged as weakening on all 5 sessions and in the bottom third of Polaris's equity ranking at both ends of the week.
Signal 3 / 3 · How did the week move the major complexes?
Wen Moon — Weekly
How did the week move the major complexes?
AI / HYPERSCALERS, BROAD EQUITIES, GOLD AND SILVER HELD THEIR POSITION ALL WEEK.
CRYPTO↑
Unsettled all week · Strongest major complex
1W +0.3% 21D +10.8% 63D +31.1%
AI / HYPERSCALERS↑
Held all week · Advancing together
BROAD EQUITIES→
Held all week · Stalling
1W -0.2% 21D +0.6% 63D +2.4%
GOLD↓
Held all week · Weakening
1W -3.4% 21D -5.6% 63D -0.5%
SILVER↓
Held all week · Weakest major complex
1W -5.8% 21D -7.3% 63D -2.4%
The tape
Market Heat Map
Total return over each window, same clock for every row.
Altcoin Market: longer history is still building; unavailable periods are not estimated.
Every row is read at the U.S. session close (4:00 PM ET) on exactly these dates, settled observations only, with no value carried forward. A row with no observation inside a window shows —. Shading compares rows within a column, not across columns.
Names
Polaris Stock Screens
Systematic screening results · not portfolio recommendations.
Breakout qualifiers — during the week
1 of 5ANO LONGER QUALIFYING FRIDAY
41
1 of 5TMONO LONGER QUALIFYING FRIDAY
36
1 of 5WATNO LONGER QUALIFYING FRIDAY
33
Cleared a Polaris breakout screen on any session this week. The left column is how many of the week's sessions it cleared; the badge says whether it still qualified on the final session.
Weekly Value Top 5
5 of 5TROWSTILL QUALIFYING FRIDAY
93
5 of 5FSLRSTILL QUALIFYING FRIDAY
93
5 of 5ACGLSTILL QUALIFYING FRIDAY
91
5 of 5GLSTILL QUALIFYING FRIDAY
90
5 of 5MOSTILL QUALIFYING FRIDAY
89
Ranked by mean daily rank across the week's sessions; the final session breaks ties. Names eligible every session rank first.
What the crowd is doing
News & Sentiment
Positioning, not prediction
CNN Fear & Greed
31Fear
as of 2026-10-02
Crypto Fear & Greed
72Greed
as of 2026-10-02
Polaris Sentiment
59Greed
as of 2026-10-02
Sentiment is split: CNN Fear & Greed reads fear; Crypto Fear & Greed and Polaris Sentiment read greed. These measure different populations, so they can disagree without either being wrong.
Season standings through Friday, October 2. All five indexes began at 100.00 on October 1.
1
Polaris DynamicLeaderThe Machine
Season+1.38%
This week-0.13%
vs S&P +0.65pp · vs Gold +2.27pp
2
S&P 500
Season+0.94%
This week+0.74%
vs Gold +1.83pp
3
KB Forever
Season+0.86%
This week+0.48%
vs S&P +0.12pp · vs Gold +1.74pp
4
Gold
Season-0.31%
This week-0.88%
vs S&P -1.04pp
5
KB Active
Season-0.84%
This week-1.05%
vs S&P -1.58pp · vs Gold +0.04pp
Won the week
S&P 500
+0.74% on the week
Season leader
Polaris Dynamic
+1.38% season
Beating both benchmarks
2 of 3 funds
season
Polaris Dynamic
+0.00% this week+0.00pp this week vs S&P+0.00pp this week vs Gold
Current allocation
IGV 60% · PDBC 40%
Next allocation effective from the 2026-10-02 close
IBIT25%newPDBC60%raisedSMH15%new
End of Part OneEverything below is the evidence behind it.
The long view
Polaris Laboratory
9 theses evaluated on 2026-10-02 · 0 consistent · 7 mixed · 2 falsified · 1 not evaluable
Two instruments share this subject and answer different questions. The monitor counts market conditions. The Laboratory tests a thesis against its own pre-declared signals. They can disagree at the same moment, and this week they do.
CURRENCY DEBASEMENT MONITOR
00000
0 of 6 conditions firing on every session of the week.
Firing
Not firing
A condition count, not a thesis verdict. Source: regime/conditions.py CURRENCY_DEBASEMENT.
MONETARY DEBASEMENTMIXED
MTWTF
Fiat currency is being debased faster than gold supply is growing; gold and BTC relative value structurally rising.
Evidence for (2 of 6)
✓m2sl growth positive — +1890.6 over 21d
✓TCMDO growth positive — +34728137.000 over 21d
Evidence against (1 of 5)
✗DXY above 200d And rising — UUP 28.90 vs 200d 27.76; 21d +2.94%
Measured, not firing
·DXY weakening 63D — UUP +2.57% 63d
·real yields negative Or declining — real yield +1.58%, 63d slope +0.82pp
Data gaps
?BTC Gap ratio elevated
?gold Gap ratio elevated
?gold Gap ratio extreme
State from hypothesis_daily_evaluations; each signal from hypothesis_signal_evaluations. Data mixed (2/6 confirmation signals, 1/5 falsification signals firing); hypothesis remains under active test.
AI Capex Late StageFALSIFIED1/5 confirming · 3/5 falsifying · held 11 evaluations
The Laboratory tests each thesis against its own pre-declared confirming and falsifying signals. It reports consistent, mixed or falsified, and nothing else may produce one of those words. Source: hypothesis_daily_evaluations + hypothesis_signal_evaluations.
Deep dive
The Sauce
The full evidence, section by section.
POLARIS’S READ THIS WEEK
One risk stayed flagged on every session: leadership concentration.
Gold itself returned -3.4% this week. Of the 43 canonical complexes Polaris measures in both frames, 14 rose in dollars, and every one of them also gained against gold. Agriculture and Developed ex-US fell in dollars and still gained against gold.
What argues against this read: Healthcare is -3.93% over 21 days in dollars but +1.78% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways — whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex. Communications is -1.90% over 21 days in dollars but +3.93% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways — whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex.
The Week Ahead · what would change the read?
The Week Ahead
What Polaris learned
Leadership was stable, not static: four complexes held the top third all week, while the changes Polaris could measure came at its edge.
What matters next
Industrials: on the watch since Tuesday and up from 4th to 2nd. It has not reached the top third.
Mid Caps: left Opportunity Watch during the week. A return would matter; continued absence would confirm the fade.
Initial Jobless Claims: due Next Thursday (2026-10-08). Weekly claims have been flat, so the next reading is the clearest near-term test of whether that continues.
The test
The read holds if Semiconductors, Industrials, Mag 7 and Broad Commodities keep their places in the top third next week.
It weakens if that group gives up rank broadly, or if the complexes that emerged this week fail to reappear.
It changes if Insurance slips back out — that would say this week's move into leadership did not stick.
Weekly Returns
How did every tracked complex do this week?
Measured close to close, from Friday, September 25 to Friday, October 2. The first table is Polaris's ranking universe, whose crypto rows are the ranking engine's own tiers and themes. The second is the canonical complex registry, in dollars and against gold.
Semiconductors: +3.96% in dollars · +7.58% against gold
Volatility: +3.36% in dollars · — against gold (gold-relative excluded: not economically applicable. An index of implied variance divided by the gold price has no interpretation.)
Software: +2.22% in dollars · +5.77% against gold
Robotics & Automation: +2.00% in dollars · +5.55% against gold
Grid & Electrification: +1.86% in dollars · +5.40% against gold
Energy: +1.47% in dollars · +5.00% against gold
Bitcoin: +0.97% in dollars · +4.49% against gold
US Dollar: +0.96% in dollars · +4.47% against gold
Utilities: +0.78% in dollars · +4.29% against gold
Infrastructure: +0.76% in dollars · +4.26% against gold
Nasdaq 100: +0.68% in dollars · +4.19% against gold
Ethereum: +0.56% in dollars · +4.06% against gold
US Mid Cap: +0.55% in dollars · +4.05% against gold
Short Treasuries: +0.10% in dollars · +3.58% against gold
Cash: +0.07% in dollars · +3.55% against gold
US Small Cap: -0.17% in dollars · +3.31% against gold
Broad Commodities: -0.20% in dollars · +3.27% against gold
US Large Cap: -0.22% in dollars · +3.25% against gold
Industrials: -0.27% in dollars · +3.20% against gold
Biotech: -0.36% in dollars · +3.11% against gold
Emerging Markets: -0.43% in dollars · +3.04% against gold
Consumer Discretionary: -0.47% in dollars · +2.99% against gold
Equal Weight S&P: -0.65% in dollars · +2.80% against gold
Intermediate Treasuries: -0.71% in dollars · +2.74% against gold
High Yield Credit: -0.78% in dollars · +2.67% against gold
Midstream: -0.83% in dollars · +2.62% against gold
Investment Grade Credit: -0.91% in dollars · +2.54% against gold
Agriculture: -1.19% in dollars · +2.25% against gold
Developed ex-US: -1.51% in dollars · +1.92% against gold
REITs: -1.63% in dollars · +1.80% against gold
Copper: -1.67% in dollars · +1.75% against gold
Materials: -1.85% in dollars · +1.57% against gold
Consumer Staples: -1.86% in dollars · +1.55% against gold
Long Treasuries: -1.93% in dollars · +1.49% against gold
China: -2.24% in dollars · +1.16% against gold
Communications: -2.37% in dollars · +1.02% against gold
Financials: -2.48% in dollars · +0.91% against gold
Healthcare: -2.67% in dollars · +0.72% against gold
Aerospace & Defense: -2.83% in dollars · +0.55% against gold
Nuclear Power: -2.87% in dollars · +0.51% against gold
Gold: -3.36% in dollars · +0.00% against gold
Uranium: -3.44% in dollars · -0.08% against gold
Gold Miners: -5.50% in dollars · -2.21% against gold
Silver Miners: -5.54% in dollars · -2.25% against gold
Silver: -5.85% in dollars · -2.57% against gold
Where a name appears in both tables the two returns can differ: the ranking universe averages that category's full basket, which may carry additional single names, while a canonical row is the complex's own instrument. They measure different things.
Gold frame measured against GLD. Polaris's canonical gold numeraire is GC=F; the return layer has not migrated, a difference of about 0.1-0.3 percentage points per complex.
Canonical complexes Polaris could not measure this week
Crude Oil: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-10-02 can be measured from it
Natural Gas: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-10-02 can be measured from it
Clean Energy: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-10-02 can be measured from it
Cybersecurity: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-10-02 can be measured from it
Regional Banks: — · no price observation since 2026-08-21 — the series stopped updating, so no horizon ending 2026-10-02 can be measured from it
Altcoin Market: — · this complex is measured by a derived index, which is parallel research and not yet an approved canonical return source, so Polaris publishes no return for it. Rebuilding past levels from today's constituents would be survivorship bias, so no horizon is estimated. This is a governance boundary, not a gap in the data.
What argues against this week's read
Healthcare is -3.93% over 21 days in dollars but +1.78% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Communications is -1.90% over 21 days in dollars but +3.93% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Developed ex-US is -2.89% over 21 days in dollars but +2.88% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Energy is -3.30% over 21 days in dollars but +2.45% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Agriculture is -3.66% over 21 days in dollars but +2.07% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Investment Grade Credit is -3.34% over 21 days in dollars but +2.40% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
High Yield Credit is -2.78% over 21 days in dollars but +3.00% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Intermediate Treasuries is -3.40% over 21 days in dollars but +2.35% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Equal Weight S&P is -4.06% over 21 days in dollars but +1.65% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
US Mid Cap is -2.25% over 21 days in dollars but +3.56% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Consumer Discretionary is -4.20% over 21 days in dollars but +1.50% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Industrials is -1.63% over 21 days in dollars but +4.22% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
US Small Cap is -4.25% over 21 days in dollars but +1.44% against gold — the two frames point opposite ways · resolved by: whether gold keeps moving the way it did over that window; the disagreement is gold's move, not a different measurement of this complex
Leadership Ranking
Where did each equity complex start and finish the week?
Polaris's 21-day leadership ranking on the week's first session (Monday, September 28) and last (Friday, October 2), on a scale of 20. The top third is ranks 1 to 6.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
First session → last session
Semiconductors: 1 → 1 · held the top third
Industrials: 4 → 2 · held the top third
Mag 7: 3 → 3 · held the top third
Broad Commodities: 2 → 4 · held the top third
Insurance: 7 → 5 · moved into the top third
Large Caps: 6 → 6 · unchanged
Mid Caps: 10 at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Energy: 5 → 11 · left the top third
Materials: 14 at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
REITs: 16 at week end · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Defense: 16 at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Precious Metals: 17 at week start · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Gold Miners: 18 → 17 · bottom third at both ends
Pipelines: 18 at week end · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Silver Miners: 19 → 19 · bottom third at both ends
Uranium: 20 → 20 · bottom third at both ends
Software: not ranked in either session · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Utilities: not ranked in either session · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Small Caps: not ranked in either session · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Emerging Markets: not ranked in either session · not ranked at both ends of the week, so no change is claimed
Conviction Ledger
What did Polaris assert during the week, and for how long?
Every conviction the week's daily editions carried, one line per subject.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
What Polaris flagged, and when
Gold Miners: deteriorating on every session (Leadership & Rotation)
Insurance: improving on every session (Leadership & Rotation)
Leadership concentration: flagged on every session (Risk Watch)
Semiconductors: improving on every session (Leadership & Rotation and Opportunity Watch)
Silver Miners: deteriorating on every session (Leadership & Rotation)
Uranium: deteriorating on every session (Leadership & Rotation)
Industrials: improving from Tuesday to Friday (Leadership & Rotation and Opportunity Watch)
Mag 7: improving on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday (Leadership & Rotation and Opportunity Watch)
Market Stress — Elevated: flagged from Tuesday to Thursday (Risk Watch)
Mid-Cycle Concentration Monitor: flagged from Wednesday to Friday (Risk Watch)
Broad Commodities: improving from Monday to Tuesday (Leadership & Rotation and Opportunity Watch)
Currency Debasement Monitor: flagged from Monday to Tuesday (Risk Watch)
Market Stress — Low: flagged on Monday and Friday (Risk Watch)
Mid Caps: improving on Monday (Leadership & Rotation)
Risk Watch — the full evidence
What is the complete evidence behind each risk state?
Part One carries each risk's state, its persistence and one concise sentence. This is the rest of the governed evidence behind those states, including how close each monitor condition is to flipping.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
Leadership concentration
Multi-week relative-strength deterioration in Silver Miners, Gold Miners while a narrower set of leadership categories carries a disproportionate share of index performance.
Currency Debasement Monitor
Nearest to changing: Gold miners (GDX) vs 200-day SMA: GDX at 89.07 is 2.17% below its 200-day SMA of 91.04 — roughly 0.9 typical daily moves from flipping.
Mid-Cycle Concentration Monitor
The conditions firing: SPY or QQQ within 2% of all-time high, IWM/SPY ratio below 200d SMA, RSP/SPY ratio below 200d SMA. Nearest to changing: Mag-7 basket 252d return − SPY 252d return: -2.567pp, 2.567pp below zero; roughly 2.7 typical daily moves from flipping. 2 of the 6 regimes Polaris monitors are this quiet.
Persistent weakness — Gold Miners, Silver Miners and Uranium
Final ranks of 20: Gold Miners 17th, Silver Miners 19th and Uranium 20th.
Underlying Polaris Modules
Risk Watch
Wen Moon — the full evidence
What is the complete evidence behind each market's standing?
Part One carries each market's governed standing and its leading horizon. This is the rest: the longer horizons and the evidence behind each standing, including the dollar and gold-relative reading where Polaris measures both.
Supporting Intelligence
Tables
Crypto
Crypto never settled this week: it read advancing on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and it led the major complexes on Friday. 252D -5.2%
AI / Hyperscalers
AI / Hyperscalers was advancing together on every session this week.
Broad equities
Broad equities was stalling on every session this week. 252D +15.1%
Gold
Gold was weakening on every session this week. 252D +6.8%
Silver
Silver was the weakest major complex on every session this week. 252D +27.6%
Where the strength is
By Friday the ordering was Crypto → AI / Hyperscalers → Broad equities → Gold → Silver.
Underlying Polaris Modules
Wen Moon
Falsifiability
Opportunity Contracts
What would confirm or break each setup, in full.
Industrials
StateIN THE TOP THIRDConfirms ifHolds a top-third rank (1–6 of 20)Breaks ifFalls back outside the top third (worse than 6 of 20)
Insurance
StateIN THE TOP THIRDConfirms ifHolds a top-third rank (1–6 of 20)Breaks ifFalls back outside the top third (worse than 6 of 20)
Semiconductors
StateIN THE TOP THIRDConfirms ifHolds a top-third rank (1–6 of 20)Breaks ifFalls back outside the top third (worse than 6 of 20)
Confidence and data quality
Confidence & Data Quality
Confidence: HIGH
5 of 5 conditions
Open data gaps
·Broadening Participation: 4 signal(s) could not be measured.
·Btc Decoupling: 5 signal(s) could not be measured.
·Late Cycle Credit: 3 signal(s) could not be measured.
·Monetary Debasement: 3 signal(s) could not be measured.
·Valuation Compression has no measurable signal yet, so it carries no evidence-based state.
Confidence conditions
·Every session of the week has a published daily: yes
·The leadership ranking covers the whole week: yes
·No gaps in the week's evidence object: yes
·Enough complexes measured to rank: yes
·Price and ranking agree on the week's extremes: yes
Coverage
·Ranking-universe coverage: 27 of 27 produced a week return
·Canonical complex coverage: 27 of 27 measurable
Provenance
·Week: Friday, September 25 close to Friday, October 2 close
